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To make it even simpler for subscribers to this newsletter to obtain this work, it can now be viewed and printed out directly from my website by clicking Here

Remember, this is an incomplete work on Internal Fractions Comparison that covers sprint races only. If and when I complete it, I will make that available to you also.

I received this email from Eric Isaccson last Saturday evening:

Jim,

"I would like the information that you have on fractions. As it stands right now I haven't gotten Calibration Handicapping yet and I thought (think) that in order to receive this info I would have already had to have bought the book. If that's not the case I would like to have it. If it is the case then I will wait to receive it once I get the book.

Saturday we weren't able to hit much but I did go out on my own on the Wide Out play. I just took about 30 seconds to handicap a race if if I saw a Wide Out play and if the odds were there I put a little across the board.

Turns out I had a winner at 50-1 and 40-1. Also had two seconds at 30-1 and 40-1 and a third at 22-1. NICE WORK! Oh and I believe the 1 in the "Big Race" at Turfway, Globalized, was a Wide Out play and I had him to win at 11-1.

Thanks again for all of your information. I hope we whack 'em over the head Sunday!"

Eric

Nice going Eric, and as you now know, it is not necessary to buy a copy of "Calibration Handicapping" to get the internal fractions addendum. He did however, purchase the book on Sunday.

Eric has also indicated to me that he is extremely serious about becoming a member of the 5% club of players who make money at this game. He would like to communicate by email with anyone who has the same goals and in particular with anyone who lives in the Indianapolis area. He can be reached at Eric Isaccson

Al Masi wrote this about the free calculator that I have been touting:

Jim,

"Thanks for the tip on the calculator from the harness link. it's the BEST that I have seen."

Al

For new subscribers, here is where you can download this incredible Free exotic wager calculator Here. I downloaded it to my desktop and it's right there in front of me whenever I want to calculate the cost of any exotic wager.

Here is some information I received from Fred concerning wagering sites that accept action from Aqueduct:

"Hi Jim, Thanks for the quick turnaround on my order. Have been reading through the archives and noticed your request for info concerning Off Track sites. My favorite is Horseplayer Interactive the Official Site of The Ontario Jockey Club. Check it out Here.

The only small problem is remembering that when you open your account they are going to convert your U.S. dollars to Canadian dollars ie: you send $100.00 US your account is opened for $120.00 Canadian. They have a very strong Customer Service Dept. and I have had absolutely no problems doing this. It is just a little strange at first.

They handle all the Major Circuits: New York, Florida, Kentucky and California. There are some other very significant advantages to the bettor. You may bet in either the track pool or the OJC pool. If your horse is 5-1 at Aqueduct and 7-1 at OJC you would of course wager in the OJC pool. Additionally they withhold no US Taxes on exotics nor do they report them to the IRS. All withdrawals are paid in US Dollars to US Accounts. Just thought I'd pass this along.

I have been using my account for over two years and as I said with the initial getting used to the exchange rate situation I have found this to be a very bettor-oriented site unlike NY OTB."

I've had a few inquiries as to the definition of a parlay bet, which I've mentioned in this newsletter from time to time.

A parlay is a wager that is accepted at many tracks by filling out a form similar to the pick 6 form. It simply means that you play an amount, say $2 to win, on a horse and then "let it ride" onto another horse or horses in another race or races.

Where I go to wager, you can parlay up to 6 races, but that's not advisable because that's asking a bit much. Let's say you really like a horse in races 2, 5 and 7. You could place a $2 win parlay on all 3. You can also mix it up as you wish with a win on race 2, place on race 5 and show on race 7.

Let's say you play win on all 3 for a $2 wager. If race 2 wins and pays $10.00, you now have $10 to win on race 5. That wins and pays $12.00. You now have $60 to win on race 7. That wins and pays $8.00 and you win the wager, which pays $240 for your $2 outlay. Of course once you make the wager you cannot stop at any point and one loss means a lost wager.

Sounds easy, but it isn't necessarily. As I say, you can mix the wager any way you want. You can play all show, for which you would probably want more than 3 races, all place, all win or a mix of any. If for example you played a 6-horse (6 different races) show parlay and they all ran 3rd or better, you would hit that bet.

If they each returned $3.00 to show, your $2 parlay ticket would be worth: $3 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 = $22.75.

This game can be very satisfying and rewarding, AND there are times when it can be very FRUSTRATING. Last Saturday's card at Aqueduct was loaded with chalk and the real value pick I had listed on top Sunday in the 9th, Clearly Sunny, had some traffic trouble in mid stretch and when he got clear and into high gear, the best he could do was 2nd at 23-1 behind the favorite. They combined for an exacta in the amount of $145.00.

On Friday, in race 9 at Aqueduct, there were great results in a race that perfectly exemplifies what I've been talking about for months in this forum. If this race had been carded on either Saturday or Sunday, obviously you all would have had my winning picks for it.

I'll use that race as my exercise for today. As I said, it was race 9 at Aqueduct on Friday, 3/24/00. It was field of 10 going 7 furlongs with no late scratches. It was for 4-year-olds and upward with a claiming tag of 22.5K (down to 18.5K) and had a pace shape of EP-EP.

I'd like to take a moment to discuss pace shape, which is an extremely important aspect of handicapping. What I do is mark on the top of my Daily Racing Form the pace shape for each race and also how many E and EP runners are in the field and next to that the actual final size of the field.

So for this race I had on the top of the page EP-EP, 4 EP and (10). Usually the fewer E and/or EP horses there are in the field, the more chance there is of one of them winning. IF there is an early speed type that has shown the ability to win on or near the pace and if it has superior early speed to the others.

Success of an early speed type will also depend on whether or not there are any real solid closers present with a final fraction advantage. So as you can see, there is no hard and fast rule of which running style has the definite advantage. But once you examine the EP and E runners, you can get a faily good idea.

It often does help to examine the pace shape of a race we are considering placing a wager on. In this case, 4 EP horses out of a field of 10 is nearly an even mix of early and late runners. But since it slightly favors an early speed type, that is what I first looked for.

And that is what I ultimately found. The superior EP speed horse from among the 4 EP runners, who dominated the race from start to finish at a very nice price.

The Daily Racing Form past performances for this race can be found Here.

But now that we are at the 700 subscriber mark and may be growing quickly in the near future, I may eventually have to make those p.p.'s available on my website and not as part of this newsletter because the attachment takes quite a bit of time to send. Currently, to send out this newsletter to everyone with an attachment takes about 6 hours.

To view the p.p.'s you need to have Adobe Acrobat Reader installed on your computer and if you don't have one, you can download a FREE copy Here.

For our race, I'll list the entries and next to them I'll list the running styles I've labeled each, followed by the last-out Beyer speed figure, the last-race final fraction (raw/actual), and any moves-within-a-race.

  1. Mount Ruckus            P    74    24.1 / 24.2
  2. Timely Turquoise      EP    76    24.3 / 25.1
  3. Binawhile                  EP    57    24.3 / 25.4    Wide Out
  4. Tycoon Todd              P    76    25.0 / 24.1
  5. Flo's Double               P    69    23.4 / 24.4
  6. Mylittlevic                 EP    94    24.4 / 24.4
  7. Key to Success           P    78    24.2 / 24.1    Wide Out
  8. Touch of Honey          P    85    24.4 / 25.0
  9. Sir Smooth                  P    82    24.1 / 24.2
10. Golden Furiously       EP    75    24.3 / 24.4

The first thing that should jump off the page at you from this chart is the large Beyer speed figure advantage for #6, Mylittlevic. When you see a discrepancy like this you want to take a closer look at such a last-out figure.

Was it accomplished on a fast track? Was it the horse's lifetime best Beyer speed figure? In this case the answer to both of those questions is yes. Also, look to see if the horse in question had an easy expanding lead. If so, that speed figure could be somewhat "inflated."

In the case of Mylettlevic, his speed figure was achieved while running hard and winning by only one-half length so it was a legitimate figure. The next question is will he likely bounce off that high number? Since this was his lifetime high figure and also we can see that the last time he ran a number in the 90's, 92 on 12/10/99, he did react to that effort, we can make a guestimate that he should react or "bounce" somewhat off that lifetime high.

Since the pace shape of this race favors early speed to a degree, let's look first at that aspect of the handicapping process. The 4 horses I have labeled EP are 2, 3, 6 and 10. Using my "speed of the speed" calculations as per my book, "Calibration Handicapping", we would have to say that #6 Mylittlevic is the speed of the speed.

But it always makes sense to look more carefully when it comes to trying to figure which horse will get the early lead in a pace shape that favors such runners because one of them may get an easy lead and go all the way.

If you look at the last-race 1st quarter times of the horses in question you will see:

  #2 - 23.2 raw and 23.2 actual
  #3 - 22.3 raw and 22.4 actual
  #6 - 22.4 raw and 22.4 actual
#10 - 23.2 raw and 23.2 actual

This shows us that #3 Binawhile can go out on top pretty quickly also and should be considered as a possibility for that role. Now let's go over the race.

#1 Mount Ruckus - has something in common with the next two runners, #'s 2 and 3. Each of them have run their lifetime best Beyer Speed figures while winning on this surface and at this distance. This can be important information since 7 furlongs is somewhat of a hybrid distance and it helps to have it showing that a horse has successfuly in the past won at that distance.

Other than that factor, Mount Ruckus does not inspire a lot of confidence off his last few outings. He ran a good final fraction in his last, but that was achieved while being 6th at the half in a field of 7 and 5th the rest of the way. I did not make Mount Ruckus a contender in this match up.

#2 Timely Turquoise - does show good early speed and also shows an affinity for the track and distance, having a perfect record on and at both. The only question in a situation like this pace shape is that if one of the early speeds gets a clear lead, what will happen to the rest of the speeds? The answer is usually that the rest of the speeds will fade out of the picture.

But that is only if one of the early speeds will get a clear lead. In this race, can we project such a scenario? The answer is yes and since Timely Turquoise is not that horse, we can project that he will not be in the money.

#3 Binawhile - is the horse that we can project to get to the front and quite likely to an easy lead. How? This horse in his last 2 races registered Beyer speed figures of 50 and 57 and he finished 8th in a field of 8 and 7th in a field of 9 respectively without ever holding the lead at any point in those two races.

If you'll notice, though, Binawhile has been racing in much higher company. As I said, his lifetime best race was on this track and at this 7F distance AND it was a wire-to-wire win. Additionally, he wired his field in his 3rd race back. But what about his last race, which looked terrible on paper?

It actually was not that terrible if you take a closer look. As I've pointed out, he was only a length and a half off a 22.3 1st quarter and the real key here is that he ran as a Wide Out horse. His fondness for the 7F distance, coupled with the big drop in class and his being a Wide Out play makes him a real threat to take this field all the way.

#4 Tycoon Todd - possesses the best last-out final fraction and as such would have to be considered a contender. He does not show any races at 7F however, and as such would more appropriately be placed on a Periphery play list, which means probably won't win but may get a piece of an exotic play.

#5 Flo's Double - last ran in the mud, but his race prior was a good smooth closing 3rd and as such he would be a possible exotic play.

#6 Mylittlevic - I put him in my top 3 as per what I've previously discussed about him, thinking that he may very well bounce somewhat but may also still have enough to get a piece.

#7 Key to Success - tied for the best last- out final fraction of 24.1; drops slightly in class and has one more thing going for him; he's a Wide Out play.

#8 Touch of Honey - first of all, I don't like to play horses claimed from Serey, and secondly, after 5 successive wins or 2nds under Serey's tutelage he ran out of the money in his last.

#9 Sir Smooth - here was a false favorite if I ever saw one. The horse had a 3-mo. layoff, came back and while TWELFTH after a quarter of a mile, threw his jockey. Then he's off another 7 weeks; no thanks.

#10 Golden Furiously - some early lick, but from the outside and not projecting to get anywhere near the early lead, he would have little chance if he went out early.

My picks in order were:

3. Binawhile
7. Key to Success
6. Mylittlevic
4. Tycoon Todd

The order of finish was:

3. Binawhile $19.20 - wire to wire
7. Key to Success - 3-7 ex. $162.00
5. Flo's Double - 3-7-5 tri. $1,946.00
10. Golden Furiously - 3-7-5-10 super. $34,046.00

The power of the Wide Out plays came to the forefront here as well as the final fraction advantage. As a matter of fact, this race was solved by all facets of my 3-component process of handicapping.

Pace shape, Moves-within-a-race, and Internal fractions advantage.

Until next week, I wish you clear skies and fast tracks. Knock 'em dead!

Jim

Back to Top

As per usual todays Daily Racing Form past performances are Here. To view the p.p.'s you need to have Adobe Acrobat Reader installed on your computer and if you don't have one, you can download a FREE copy Here.

For our race, I'll list the entries and next to them I'll list the running styles I've labeled each, followed by the last-out Beyer speed figure, the last-race final fraction (raw/actual), and any moves-within-a-race. Horses 2, 9 & 10 had last run in sprints, so their final fractions have to be adjusted by adding one full second to their 3rd quarter figures.

  1. Guaranteed            E     83    25.2 / 26.1
  2. Be Accountable    EP    84    24.1 / 24.2
  3. Maybe Jack           P    78    25.2 / 25.4
  4. Cool Secret            S    62    27.1 / 00.0
  5. Columbia Lion        P    74    25.1 / 26.2
  6. Flask                    EP    83    25.2 / 25.2
  9. Tracking                 P    70    24.0 / 25.0    W.O.
10. Fourth and Six        S    73    24.1 / 25.3    W.O.

The first thing I look at is the pace shape. In this match up, we have 3 early speed types, #1, a confirmed frontrunner E type and #'s 2 and 6 as EP runners. With only 3 out of 8 as early types, a slight advantage goes to them.

PROVIDED one of them (as in Sunday's 9th) has a distinct early advantage over the others. Is that the case here? No. As I said in my analysis, the E horse #1 Guaranteed will have to clear the EP horse to his right, #2 Be Accountable and since the latter is stretching out off sprints, that does not project to be an easy chore. Be Accountable ran a 45.1 half in his last at 7F and as such looks as though he will defintely hook up with Guaranteed.

As per the chart above, the 3 early speed types were in possession of the top 3 last-out Beyer speed figures in this match up. In this field of 8, they ran 6th, 7th, and 8th. So much for the accuracy of speed figures as a prime handicapping tool for each and every race.

This is yet another case in which the pace shape and running styles gave definite clues as to which running style(s) would have the advantage. Those of us that look at these factors are way ahead of our competition, the majority of which never ever look at pace in this manner.

Since it was nearly an even match up of early and late runners (3 early out of 8) and none of the earlys projected to get an easy lead, we would expect closers to be there at the end, and that is what I based my picks on.

My original picks in order were 10-9-7 as the top 3 and 1-3 as periphery plays. With the late scratch of #7, who possessed the best final fraction by far, I was left with 10-9-1-3. Here is a look at the field.

#1 Guaranteed - as stated, his running style did not fit well in this match up with the strong possibility that he would be hooked early by #2.

#2 Be Accountable - was stretching out off sprints and with his early speed running style would have great difficulty due to the presence of #1. Do the early speeds always cancel out each other? Not always, but in essence this is a numbers game, and the odds are that they will.

#3 Maybe Jack - There was not a whole lot showing for me to recommend this horse. Why did I put him in there? Simple, and for the same reason the public bet him. Because Juan Serey claimed him a couple of starts back. Do I think the drop in class accounted for him winning this race? Not at all.

Jerry Stokes, my friend the "Guru" would call that running line a move-within-a-race named the FDK play, but I don't think Serey had Chuck Lopez orchestrate that precise move. He certainly doesn't have his jockeys make that move for other horses as he specializes in early speed types.

It's no real secret that I think the fantastic, fabulous record Mr. Serey has with his horses lately is not due to his expertise as a trainer. I don't want to go on record in this forum for obvious reasons, but I think you know why I think he wins as many races as he does.

Since I keyed on #10 Fourth and Six due to his Wide Out move and sharp drop in company, I hit the exacta and trifecta, but I and others lost out on a much higher exacta, in the range of $500 to $600 had the 10-9 exacta clicked.

Should I believe that Mr. Serey is such a good trainer and so much better than all the rest? Is that why he's batting at an unbelieveable .522 win percentage (12 wins from 23 starts) this meet? Think about it; what could he possibly do so differently from the rest of the trainers to have such a record compared to theirs?

Especially off the claim. What could he possibly do to a horse for a few days after the claim and before its next race that would account for so many immediate and dramatic turnarounds? Does he bathe them differently than all the other trainers? Does he have a group of violinists serenade them before they turn in for the night? Hmmm.

#4 Cool Secret - showed nothing.

#5 Columbia Lion - also did not show much other than a significant drop in class.

#6 Flask - you could make a case for this horse off his record at the distance which included a win on this track. But I didn't use Flask because of his seemingly being in the midst of an off cycle. From June '99 until the end of the year, his record was 4 wins, 3 2nds and 1 3rd from 9 races. This year has been a different story and although his last was an improvement, I still had doubts in spite of the services of Chop-Chop Chavez, who has returned to the New York racing scene.

#9 Tracking - I thought this horse had a legitimate shot as a longshot in this group and listed him as my second choice. He was exiting a 6F sprint in which he ran as a Wide Out play for this match up. Although he lacked experience at a mile, his p.p.s showed he could hack a distance other than a sprint.

#10 Fourth and Six - as stated, I liked him off the drop and as a Wide Out play. His lifetime best Beyer speed figure was at this distance and on this track. And his closing style would not be as much of a disadvantage in this contest due to the pace shape and running style match ups previously discussed.

Here are the official results:

#3 Maybe Jack - Won $10.40
#10 Fourth and Six - 2nd - 3-10 ex. $52.00
#9 Tracking - 3rd - 3-10-9 tri. $1,209.00
(another "Guru" TBC)

Until next week, I wish you clear skies skies and fast tracks. Knock 'em dead!

Jim

To obtain your free copy of Adobe Acrobat Reader Click Here.

Once you have this valuable software on your hard drive, if you want to access my internal fractions addendum just Click Here.

This week's example race relates to another key question, "what is value?" I've said in the past that value is in the eye of the beholder, but it really boils down to getting a payoff of at least as much as or more than we would expect. In a recent newsletter, I showed an example of a horse with an extreme Beyer speed figure advantage that could be bet against with some confidence. Last Saturday's 2nd at Aqueduct featured a similar short-priced horse, but this time one that looked like a winner.

It turned out to be a case in which there was potential to transform a 1-5 or 2-5 shot into a decent payoff. I listed that favorite and one other horse with the stipulation that if I could get 5-1 or better on that cold exacta, I would go for it. As it turned out that combo did click and paid $13.80 which is nearly 6-1 and this race is a demonstration of how it is possible to transform a 1-5 shot into a decent payoff.

Some may say, "who needs a $13.80 exacta?" If it is a cold exacta, it can be looked at in the same light as a win bet and who would argue with nearly 6-1 on a win bet?

I'll list the entries and next to them I'll list the running styles I've labeled each, followed by the last-out Beyer speed figure, the last-race final fraction (raw/actual), and any moves-within-a-race. For last-out sprinters, I'll use the 3rd-quarter fractions and for last-out routers, I'll use 4th-quarter fractions. Since this is a mile race, or a route, I'll add one second to the final fractions of the last-out sprinters.

If you have Adobe Acrobat Reader installed on your computer, you can view and/or print the Daily Racing Form past performances for this race and follow along. Simply Click Here.

This was a field of 7 after the late scratches of #'s 1 and 7 and was a mile race for NYState-breds, 3-year-olds & upward.

   2. Bay Diamond           P  53  25.1 / 26.0 - 27.0
   3. Monologue            EP  68  25.1 / 25.1 - 26.1
   4. Brazen Memories     P  64  25.1 / 26.2
1A. Morfar                     P  68  25.4 / 24.3 - 25.3
   5. Brashton                  P  43  25.1 / 27.0  WIR/SRE
   6. Mr. Missionary      EP  73  25.1 / 25.3
   8. Conflagration           P  52

What is the first thing that jumps out at you when you look at this chart? Correct. The pace shape. There are only 2 EP type runners in the field of 7, #'s 3 and 6. Since #6 Mr. Missionary has the better early speed of the two, not to mention the clear Beyer speed figure advantage also, he is the most logical horse to win this race. He should win it wire-to-wire according to the pace shape, but he also can be projected to be a very short price due to his Beyer advantage.

Let's go over the field.

#2 Bay Diamond - in his last race, he ran dead last all the way around the track. His previous outing was somewhat better, but nothing to override the fact that he hasn't shown he can compete in New York, coming in from the likes of Tampa Bay Downs and Finger Lakes.

#3 Monologue - figured to be a strong second choice among the betting public, due to his Beyer speed figures. If he ran 2nd, he would complete a real tiny exacta also. Why did I throw him out? Not only was there a horse in the field who figured better than he did for 2nd, but as the other EP runner, he could be expected to drop out of it if he tried to run early with Mr. Missionary. That's precisely what he did and he met that fate.

#4 Brazen Memories - last ran in the slop. Going back to his dry track performances, he is an immediate toss out and non-contender.

#1A Morfar - was coming off a good closing performance, but it was at 5 1/2 furlongs and it was also at Garden State. In his only other try in New York, he ran a dull last-place finish. Another who would have to prove he can run well at a major track before we can consider using him.

#5 Brashton - his last was a dull 8th-place finish in a field of 9. Or was it? I'm sure that's the way most players saw him. They probably bet him down to the 3rd choice based on his prior race when he finished 2nd in the slop. But as you can see in the above chart, Brashton was a Wide Out play and he was also an SRE play in that slop race.

It wasn't simply a dull 8th-place finish. Being a Wide Out play in and of itself is reason enough to make Brashton the horse that projects to transform a 1-5 shot that pays $2.70 into a straight wager that pays nearly 6-1 or $13.80.

Since he also was an SRE horse, the play was strengthened even more, and looking around at the rest of the field, one could have a pretty optimistic feeling about this play.

# 8 Conflagration - was eased in his last and his prior was dull also so there was little in his recent past performances to make us consider him a contender. As it turned out, exiting the same race as Brashton, he finished 3rd at 28-1.

Mr. Missionary did go wire-to-wire in a jog, while Brashton got up to complete the nearly 6-1 payoff.

Until next week, I wish you clear skies and fast tracks. Knock 'em dead!

Jim

To obtain your free copy of the Adobe Acrobat Reader Click Here.

And to view and print the p.p.'s for today's race Click Here.

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For the benefit of new subscribers, from time to time I list a URL from which anyone interested can download a real handy FREE exotic wager calculator. To get it Click Here

I downloaded this handy tool to my desktop and it's right there in front of me any time I want to calculate the cost of any exotic wager.

***************************************************

Here is another email I received, this time from Rich Johnstin and it concerns this week's example race:

Hi Jim, just wanted to point this one out after reviewing Monday's races at Aqueduct. In the 9th there were only 6 runners left after scratches. #6 and #8 were definite Wide Out plays. #2 may have been a little bit of a stretch, but was 4-wide and did drop back. Was also a beaten favorite, one of my favorite angles.

Anyway, these three combined for a $206 tri. and the 2/6 exacta was good for $103. Not too shabby in a 6-horse field...this race was a great example of the power of the Wide Out play. Keep the faith, Rich

As I told Rich in my response to him, this race is a good illustration of the potential for change when handicapping the races one day ahead of time. I could use Race 4 from last Monday as today's example race as it clicked when my top horse of 3 picks won at $8.10 (15-1 morning line) and my 3rd pick ran 2nd to complete a $54.50 exacta.

But I think we can learn a few more things from race 9. As I say, in order to get the newsletters and picks out to everyone as early as possible, I handicap the races the day before. Last Sunday, when I was pouring over Monday's entries, the weatherman was calling for rainy conditions for the next few days, including Sunday.

However, it was a beautiful spring day here in New York with plenty of sunshine. So I couldn't be sure if it would rain much for Monday's card. Well, it did rain enough to make the track sloppy and the original field of 9 was reduced to only 6 and the late scratches included my 1st and 3rd picks.

So for all intents and purposes, I only had one selection for race 9 on Monday, but circumstances had changed radically. To the point that my remaining pick was really not my top pick, especially at odds of 7-5! For one thing, the top 2 speed horses were among those late scratches and that changed the pace shape of this race dramatically.

The bottom line is that we should always make adjustments when necessary, when weather conditions or late scratches or surface switches alter the pace shape of the race in question. This race went from a field of 9 with these running styles: 2E, 4EP, 3P to a field of 6 with running styles of 3EP and 3P. As stated, no longer were the main early speed horses present, nor was the horse with the best final fraction.

As Rich mentioned, there was an abundance of value in this short field so let's go over it. I'll list the horses and their saddlecloth numbers, and next to them I'll list the running styles I labeled each, followed by the last out Beyer speed figures, the last-out 3rd quarter fractions (raw/actual) and any moves-within-a- race. The lone exception for final fractions is #9 who last ran at a mile and for him I'll use his 4th quarter fraction and adjust it to compare to the sprinters by subtracting a full second.

2. Sir Smooth                P  69  24.3 / 25.2
4. Call Fiorello            EP  81  25.2 / 26.1
6. Strutting Along        EP  71  24.2 / 25.3  W.O.
7. Duck Grayson           P  69  24.2 / 25.3
8. First Rodeo               P  82  25.2 / 25.4
9. Be Accountable      EP  70  26.4 / 27.3 / 26.3

This was a 6F sprint for 4-year-olds and upward with claiming tags of $30K down to $25K. Here is how I saw the race after the late scratches.

2. Sir Smooth - was not a Wide Out play according to the definition in my book, "Calibration Handicapping", but did have a couple of things going for him. First of all, he had the best last-out final fraction and in addition, he made a nice move of a gain of a length and a quarter in the final furlong of his last race at 7F.

If you examine his Beyer speed figures, preceeding his last 2 outings, you can see that frequently he ran numbers in the mid-80's so any sign of an improved next-out performance would lead us to believe he may go back to such a number, and we had those signs.

4. Call Fiorello - looked like the speed in this match up off his 1st 2 fractions of 21.3 and 44.4 in his last race. Some may wonder why I didn't label this horse as a Profile play, but for those that have my book, look closely and you will see he was not.

He could be expected to get betting action off his Beyers and drop in claiming price, but he had not shown he could do better than 2nd in New York and his 2 2nd-place finishes were followed by a 5th-place finish, all of which were hard fought races to at least the 8th pole. Enough of a sign that he may be in a down cycle to make me omit him from my wagers.

6. Strutting Along - the horse I made my key with a win bet and a key in the exotic wagering. He was a Wide Out play who with the original field intact I did not have in my picks due to the presence of what I felt was a strong speed horse and a strong final fraction advantage horse.

With those 2 now missing in action, Strutting Along looked like the one in this match up. He was dropping to a claimer for the first time and had run an 86 Beyer speed figure in the past to show that when primed, he was capable of such a number again. The main reason why I liked him, however, was his Wide Out status.

7. Duck Grayson - in spite of dropping back to the claiming ranks, where he didn't fare any better, was consistent, but dull, and was a throwout.

8. First Rodeo - had the best last-out Beyer and as such, went to the post as the 7-5 favorite. I liked him off his 2nd race back and also because he probably didn't get a chance to run his best race last time after being forced 5-wide after being bumped at the start. He would definitely have to be in my top 3 in this small field.

9. Be Accountable - showed some early speed at a mile in his last and was dropping in company slightly as well as in distance for this try. Although his prior was a good effort at 7F, I couldn't consider him for a 1st or 2nd spot in the exotics. He could be included, however, as a periphery play for the trifecta mostly in the 3rd slot, and perhaps smaller in the place hole.

The results were as follows:

Won -   #2 Sir Smooth - $12.20
Place -  #6 Strutting Along - ex. 2-6 $103.00
Show - #8 First Rodeo - tri. 2-6-8 $206.50

If you look at the chart above you will see that the top 2 last-out Beyer speed figure horses were out of the exacta and that the top 2 final fraction horses ran 1-2, with the Wide Out play finishing 2nd at 7-1. Additionally, on a sloppy track which had been completely biased toward early speed, calculating the turn times for the sprinters who showed something in their last races revealed the following:

2. 23.0 * 21
4. 23.1 * 17
6. 22.2 * 19
8. 22.4 * 17

One could easily see that using all information pertinent to the conditions, the 3 choices had to be #'s 2, 6 and 8 and in this short field the value they presented together made them a value play in an exacta and trifecta box. Even if the 6-5 favorite #8 had run 1st or 2nd, the payoffs would still have been acceptable.

Until next week, I wish you clear skies and fast tracks. Knock 'em dead!

Jim

I will then post those plays either in this newsletter if the pick is going on a weekend day, or on my site if it is scheduled to run on a weekday. If it goes on a weekday, I will post the pick on my site on the "Free Selections" page, the URL for which is Click Here. You can email me with any such picks at: Email Jim .

Here is what Mike wrote:

Jim,

Dozey Doats, a Profile winner yesterday in the 7th at Santa Anita, paid $103.40. A $2 exacta with the favorite paid $398!! Not too shabby!! What happened to someone's idea of posting the horses that have made a "move-within-a-race???"

Regards,

Mike Bertolet
Email Mike

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

It's always nice to receive emails like this one from Richard Nadolny:

Dear Jim,

I have been playing the horses since I was a teenager. All my life I have been searching for a system. I have spent thousands in doing so.

I want to tell you that this is the first methodology that really works. It is unbelievable to me how logical it is and how well it works. I will never bother paying good money for any other system. My days of searching for a good sound handicapping approach are over thanks to your book, "Calibration Handicapping."

Sincerely,

Richard Nadolny

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Last Saturday's Coolmore Lexington Stakes race at Keeneland was pretty much the last significant Kentucky Derby prep. The winner, Unshaded, who was my top listed selection, made a very strong outside move on the far turn and won going away at $14.60 against a prevailing inside speed bias.

It will be interesting to see it the connections put up the supplementary fee of $150,000 to get him into the big race. He's a good-looking and late-developing gelding with a shot, and as we know, the longshot of last year's renewal (and the Preakness), Charasmatic, used this race as his final prep.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

As many of you know by now, the handicapping process I use can be labeled a 3-step method. The 3 areas of focus for me are Pace Shape, "Moves-within-a-Race", and Internal Fraction Advantages. Every new subscriber to this newsletter is given the URL location at which they can view and/or print my unfinished addendum to my book, "Calibration Handicapping" that covers the 3rd area of handicapping.

For anyone who may have misplaced that URL, Click Here

The race I'm going to review today is a good example of that handicapping process in action. It's the 9th race at Aqueduct on 4/12/00. As per usual, I will make the Daily Racing Form past performances of this race available to you in .pdf format so that you can view and/or print them and follow along.

If you have a free copy of Adobe Acrobat Reader installed on your computer, you can access these p.p.'s by clicking Here

This was a race for N.Y. State-Bred Maiden Special Weights at a Mile for 3-year-olds and up. I'll list the horses and their saddlecloth numbers, and next to them I'll list the running styles I labeled each, followed by the last-out Beyer speed figures, the final fractions (raw/actual) and any moves-within-a-race. Since there is a mixture of last-out sprinters and routers, I'll add one full second to the sprinters' actual times.

   1. My Pal Al                    S    51    25.2 / 25.4
   2. Battle of Saratoga        P    35    25.1 / 26.3 / 27.3
   3. Lunatic                        P    34    26.3 / 27.4
   4. Blue Eyed Trickstr     EP    60    25.2 / 25.4    W.O.
   5. Formal Player              S    54    25.0 / 25.3 / 26.3
   6. Key On Richie           EP    69    25.0 / 25.0 / 26.0
   7. Wallimar                      P    69    25.4 / 25.3
   8. Fourteen Ten               P    43    25.3 / 27.0
   9. Moscow Madness     EP    46    24.4 / 26.1 / 27.1    Prof/W.O.
 10. New York Jazz (turf)   P    53    25.3 / 26.0
 11. Brant Lake                  S    48    26.3 / 27.2
 12. Morganite                    First-Time-Starter

In this large field of 12, with only 3 early types and 9 late types, the pace shape would tend to favor the early runners. In 6 of the previous races run that day, however, the first 2 horses up the backstretch and as far as the turn, did not finish in the exacta.

So we would want to examine the early horses closely to see if there is a dominant one from among them, as we would anyway, regardless of any perceived bias. #6 Key On Richie is the EP horse that can clearly be considered the "speed of the speed" among the 3 such runners, having shown superior speed in his last-out sprint.

If Key On Richie turned out to be the strongest of the speed, then that would not bode well for the others, #'s 4 and 9 if they ran up on the early pace with him, in spite of them being Wide Out plays. One of those speeds, however, was Blue Eyed Trickstr, and since he was competing in 9-furlong races recently, he did not figure to press the pace in this match up.

For exotics players, a common phenomenon is that the first 3 finishers will alternate running styles. For instance, if a horse wins from off the pace, the place horse will often be the true speed of the race and the show horse will also come from off the pace.

If a speed horse wins the race, then a common scenario would be for a closer to get the place money and another speed to hold up for the show slot. In this particular match up, with only 2 apparent early speed types and the track favoring off-the-pace runners, I had to think that #6 Key On Richie would have to be the one to hold up to be in the money.

As it turned out, with a pace shape of 3 EP's and the rest closers to varying degrees, we'll see that 2 of those 3 EP runners hit the board, with one of them being dq'd from the show slot.

Here is the field:

1. My Pal Al - as an S runner from the rail, he would need some racing luck. He got some of that luck when the track tended to favor off-the-pace types. Since he was tied for the second-best last-out final fraction of 25.4, he would have to be considered as a money prospect, but with that running style, I would not consider him for the win slot.

2. Battle of Saratoga - in spite of the addition of blinkers for this event, his last race, which was his first since April of '99, was dull and he was a toss out.

3. Lunatic - showed nothing in 3 of his 4 lifetime races and was another pretender in this match up.

4. Blue Eyed Trickstr - as stated, had the favored running style, although he figured to be further back than usual in this field sprinkled with sprinters. As a Wide Out play with first-time lasix and tied for the second-best last-out final fraction, he would have to be considered to be among the contenders, but again, more probable for the place and show slots.

5. Formal Player - in his only lifetime start he ran a dud at odds of 3-5. Although he was fairly close up, he was 7th for the early part of the race and beat only 3 horses, whereas the horse to his outside, Key On Richie just missed by a head at 8-1 in the same heat. Periphery player at best.

6. Key On Richie - as the perceived "speed of the speed" in a pace shape that favored early speed, he would have to be labeled a major player in this match up. In addition to tying for the best last-out Beyer speed figure, he was only 2 ticks off the best last-out final fraction.

7. Wallimar - had a few things going for him. He was tied for the best last-out Beyer speed figure and possessed the best last-out final fraction. If you look at his last running line, he finished very smoothly and evenly in spite of being steadied in the stretch. One of my top two.

8. Fourteen Ten - ran wide and finished a distant third; not a whole lot to get excited about. Maybe for superfecta players as a contender for the fourth and last slot in that play.

9. Moscow Madness - a Profile/Wide Out play that looked pretty decent on paper but he had a few things that would hinder his chances somewhat and make him a less attractive play than he might have normally been. Going from the 9-hole, as one of only a few early types, he would have to be gunned from the gate.

Secondly, if he did go out and try for a clear lead, at some point up the backstretch and around the turn he would have to contend with the "speed of the speed", #6, who figured to be stronger. In addition, the track was playing against his early speed style. I had him tabbed as a periphery play for the 3rd slot in trifectas and to a lesser degree in the second slot in exactas.

10. New York Jazz - flashed some speed at Tampa Bay Downs on the turf but did not figure in this match up.

11. Brant Lake - an S horse from the 11-hole having shown little in his 3 lifetime outings.

12. Morganite - a first-time-starter with lackluster works.

My top choices were the top 2 and 3rd best final fraction horses, two of which fit the pace shape advantage favoring EP runners: #6 Key On Richie, #7 Wallimar, and #4 Blue Eyed Trickstr. As post time neared, it was a no-brainer as to which horse to bet to win and to key in the exotics; the odds on these 3 respectively were 2-1, 9-1 and 7-2. At 9-1, with the best last out Beyer and final fraction, #7 Wallimar was the key. Here are the results:

Win:    #7 Wallimar - $20.00
Place:  #6 Key On Richie - 7-6 ex. $61.00
Show: #4 Blue Eyed Trickster - DQ'd, replaced by #1 My Pal Al
7-6-1 tri. $789.00

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Until next week, I wish you clear skies and fast tracks. Knock 'em dead!

Jim

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